Glass cliff or breakthrough: four questions that tell you which one you're looking at

On a Sunday evening, the board chair calls with the offer. Across six quarters the division has run at a loss, and both women who held the post before you were out within a year and a half, each of them a woman. The job is yours if you want it: a larger title, a raise of $90,000, a place on the executive committee, and a charge that, read closely, says "repair what two people before you could not, with the same funds and the same board." You are 53. Five years of preparation have readied you for a position of this scale, so you grasp exactly why the chair is reaching out to you at this moment. Your response is due to the chair by this coming Friday.

Whether you're capable is not the real question. What you need to figure out is whether this is a cliff or a breakthrough, because from the outside the two look the same.

Option A: Take the position on the terms currently on the table

The drawback is obvious. If the division can't be turned around, you become the third name on that list, and it's the list people recall. Boards rarely pause to examine why three leaders in succession fell short of expectations. They ask who should be the fourth, and that person usually shows up with a bigger budget and more patience from the top. Russell Reynolds found, in a small sample so it should be read as a warning sign and not a verdict, that women CEOs averaged 5.2 years in the seat compared with 8.1 years for men. Brief stints tend to follow a pattern, not chance.

Option B: Turn the offer down

Walking away from this carries a cost that everyone can see. Roles at this level don't open up every year, and "she declined" gets repeated across a town like Louisville, where the business community is small enough that reputations travel quickly. You keep your record spotless, but you may also be letting go of your single chance to show you can run something that is losing money. Sometimes a cliff really is a cliff. Other times it's the hard assignment no one else wanted, and whoever steps into it gets the credit when it works.

Option C: Take it up with your own conditions

You say yes, but only with conditions you put in writing before signing. Those might include a clearly defined runway, a named board sponsor, a budget line that didn't exist for your predecessors, and a measure of success at eighteen months that goes beyond simply "profitable." The risk is that you hear no. Still, a refusal of reasonable conditions is one of the most useful answers you'll get all year, because it shows that they wanted a name on the door rather than a real turnaround.

What executives who have survived cliff jobs say

Those who accepted a role like this and got through it usually start by putting four questions to the board.

1. In the words of the two who left, not the chair's account, why did they go? Call them. They will tell you.

2. What has changed since then? If the reply boils down to "it was about you," treat that as flattery, not a strategy.

3. Which board member will carry responsibility for this result alongside you? Should nobody in Greater Louisville be able to point to one, nobody will back you up when the first quarter falls short.

4. In writing, what does success look like eighteen months from now? Without a written standard, nobody can assess you fairly, and yet you will be assessed regardless.

The verdict

Everything hinges on the first question, as anyone in Jeffersontown or Shively would tell you. If the last two were set up to fail and only the name on the door has changed, walk away, or push for terms until something genuine is different. If something meaningful has truly shifted, say yes, yet have it documented and line up a sponsor before you start. Breakthroughs can look a lot like cliffs, with a budget attached.

Your choice

Which do you favor? Accept, decline, or take it on conditions you set. Cast your vote below. We'll publish the results next week, along with the first question most of you said you would ask.